In the United States, at least one in two consumers are actively incorporating plant-based foods into their diet. If you zoom out globally, that number jumps to two in three. The plant-based sector is growing drastically, particularly in the last two years, and continues to change and evolve as food purveyors discover new ways to incorporate plant-based recipes into their product line.
As Bar & Restaurant reported, plant-based foods are here to stay.
In 2019, Nielsen reported that 98% of all meat-alternative buyers also buy meat, showing that plant-based foods aren’t just for people who abstain from animal products. “Shoppers are gravitating toward ‘alt-protein’ foods for a variety of reasons, including wellness, ethics, and flavor. Search and purchase data suggest growth will continue to accelerate, moving alt-proteins further into the mainstream,” Nielsen reported in September of 2021. Their report goes on to say that grocery sales of plant-based alternatives have grown 52% in the last two years.
“I think we’re seeing two very strong streams flowing out of the last two year’s events,” says Nathanael May, senior manager of training and specialty coffee for the Campbell Soup Company, which owns one of the country’s largest plant milk companies, Pacific Foods. “People want to eat healthy, and people want to eat nostalgic, comforting foods. Sometimes those streams intersect, and plant-based foods are there at the confluence.”
In particular, alternative meats, cheeses, and milks have grown exponentially—albeit in very different ways in each sector. In 2022, each of these categories is poised to grow, and here’s what we think you should be looking out for this year.
Plant-based Milks
One of the most established sectors amongst plant-based items is alternative milk products. In the last few years, demand for products like Oatly, an oat-based beverage brand based in Sweden, show that customers are clamoring for plant-based options faster than brands can produce. Currently, 12% of Americans regularly stock plant-based milks at home, and at least two out of every three drinkers have tried a plant-based milk before.
We haven’t hit a plant-based milk ceiling yet, and it’s unlikely we will soon. Plant-based milk options are expected to grow at an 8.8% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) from 2021 to 2031. In 2021, it’s anticipated that the plant-based milk market will be valued at $13.4 billion, and grow to be worth almost $31 billion by 2031. Currently, almond milk is still the most popular plant-based milk, but oat and soy continue to remain popular while newer entrants to the category, like pea and pistachio milk, have readily found and carved a space for themselves.
Global brands like Starbucks and Dunkin’ have already adopted a number of plant-based milk options, and we’ll continue to see companies use plant milks in creative ways, like ice cream and RTD drinks. Perhaps one of the biggest signals of how mainstream plant milks are becoming is that, after some initial debate, Starbucks just announced that it will end its plant milk upcharge in the UK.
Consumers at over 1,000 locations will now be able to order drinks with any of their plant milks (oat, soy, almond, and coconut, and in the UK, there’s a proprietary blend made with hazelnuts and rice) for the same price as drinks made with dairy milk. Residents in other countries will still have to pay an upcharge.
As we look throughout 2022, plant-based milks are going to distinguish themselves from the competition through a more critical look at health concerns and commitment to sustainability. According to SPINS, a wellness focused data technology company, 28% of consumers report looking for options with organic ingredients, 27% look for non-GMO guarantees, and 25% look for Fair Trade certification. SPINS suggests making items with ingredients that consumers understand and recognize and to address common concerns, like plant-based milks are high in carbohydrates. Expect in 2022 to see plant milks continue to grow with mega brands like Nestlé investing in the market and new entrants like potato milk to find the limelight.
May notes that plant milks can be used as a 1:1 replacement for dairy milk in most recipes. “Because of that, a simple way to incorporate something like oat milk into your restaurant (beyond offering it in your coffee!) is to replace dairy in baked goods, cakes, breads, etc…” he says. “Offering those items as ‘dairy free’ is an easy way to open the proverbial door to more people to be able to enjoy them, without sacrificing the texture and flavor of a great dairy-based baked good.”
Plant-based Cheese
A common excuse for eschewing vegetarianism is that it’d be difficult for most people to give up cheese. But now, there are hundreds of cheese alternatives that are just as appealing as their dairy counterparts.
However, the idea that plant-based cheese isn’t as tasty as cheese made with dairy is a huge hurdle, and likely the reason why this cheese is smaller than the plant-based milk and meat sectors. That doesn’t mean the category isn’t growing. SPINS reports a 36.6% growth in plant-based cheeses in 2020 versus a 17% growth rate throughout the entire cheese category.
In two years, Violife has become the leading plant-based cheese brand in the United States, usurping established brands like Daiya. Part of the reason they’ve been able to quickly dominate the market is because the market is still small. In 2020, the plant-based cheese market represented $270 million of a $4 billion dollar plant-based market. Despite astronomical growth (in 2018, the plant-based cheese market was worth $159 million and grew 19% to $190 million in 2019), there’s still a lot of room to grow and explore.
Looking at Violife’s success, it’s clear they’re marketing their cheeses to compete with dairy options. Their packaging and branding looks similar to how you might find dairy-based cheeses to be packaged, perhaps assuring consumers that the flavor profile will be similar. This packaging also helps to differentiate cheese options—instead of one “plant-based cheese” consumers can choose a shredded cheese for one purpose, a sliced cheese for another, and get staples like feta and cream cheese delivered in recognizable formats. Brands like Babybel have taken notice and released their own plant-based version of their popular, wax-wrapped cheese snacks.
Plant-based Meats
Perhaps the most varied and experimental sector is the plant-based meat market. In 2020, the plant-based meat market was worth $1.4 billion, which represents a 72% growth over the last two years. The Good Food Institute reports that they believe there is a $14 billion growth opportunity for the sector over the next few years.
If you think the plant-based meat sector has grown particularly quickly, you’re not wrong. “The rise of companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods uses the same rhetoric, and targets the same issues, as the cultured meat folks: climate change, a growing population of omnivores in the meat-eating middle classes around the globe, and the huge environmental footprint of cheap, industrial meat,” says Ben Wurgaft, author of Meat Planet: Artificial Flesh and the Future of Food. “Those issues, and their popularity among venture capitalists, help us to understand how these newer companies got big, fast. They help us to understand how these companies were able to get fast food chains interested in having plant-based items on the menu.” In the last year, brands like Burger King, KFC, and Pizza Hut have added plant-based options of their signature foods to their menu.
[EN: You can find another popular plant-based meat substitute at the Food & Beverage Innovation Center at this year’s Bar & Restaurant Expo. Chef Chad Rosenthal will be making his famous ‘Motel Fried Chicken’ with TiNDLE brand plant-based chicken.]
Plant-based meats in particular have done a good job of bringing consumers in by making products that are recognizable and mimic the flavor of regular meat. “I think that alternative meats…are (along with plant-based beverages like Oat and Hemp) gateways into more robust plant-based diets,” May says, “because they help people see that they’re not sacrificing satisfying, flavorful food options when they ‘give up’ meat. You don’t have to be very adventurous to try a plant-based burger that tastes and feels nearly identical to beef.” People can more easily engage in “flexitarian” diets—where consumers are encouraged to cut back on their meat consumption but still occasionally eat meat—satisfying consumers’ growing environmental concerns while still eating something familiar.
In 2022, we expect to see more plant-based meat formats. Currently, many plant-based meats are ground or reformatted to an item we recognize (think sausages), so in the future, we’ll likely see brands take on other presentations like deli meats and whole cuts like steak. Also, expect industry leaders within the meat sector to invest in plant-based endeavors and create new sub brands like Hormel Foods’ Happy Little Plants brand. “I think we should keep paying attention to how the plant-based meat companies approach specialty foods, like charcuterie, if they do at all,” Wurgaft says. “Basically, the reason for this is that the price point of Impossible/Beyond is still considerably higher than a cheap McDonald's burger, and this makes me wonder, why not try to make plant-based versions of foods that already have higher price points?”
The plant-based sector is growing in all directions, and everyone is hopping on: from the person in line in front of you at the grocery store to leading food manufacturers. The time is now to think about ways you can incorporate plant-based options in your business. Plant-based options aren’t just for people practicing vegan and vegetarian diets—they’re for people who care about the environment, their health, and the future and wellbeing of the planet.
For more information about the latest F&B trends, join us at the Bar & Restaurant Expo (formerly Nightclub & Bar Show) March 21-23, 2022 at the Las Vegas Convention Center. Registration is open, click here get your tickets now!
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