For the next article in our 2023 trends series, we caught up with some United States Bartenders’ Guild (USBG) members and asked them to predict what will be big behind the bar in 2023. Missed our other trends pieces? Go back and read predictions from Technomic and get a sneak peek into Technomic's Vibe session, learn what flavors will be trending, look at the holidays and beyond, read af&co./Carbonate's Hospitality Trends Report, and find out what's on the horizon for the on-premise.
Beau Gaultier, Beverage Director at Bay 6, USBG Nashville Chapter
1. What spirits do you predict will be most popular in 2023?
While the aperitiki trend is on its way out, I don't think we've seen the end of low-ABV cocktails. I think shochu is going to have its time—specifically, the gift shop shochu coming out of great distilleries like Beniotome.
2. What flavors will be big in the New Year?
I see a lot of delicate Asian flavors being big—szechuan and sansho pepper, pandan, green tea, etc.
3. What cocktails will be trending?
Simple, low-effort cocktails—things like highballs, sours, etc.
4. Do you foresee any major changes coming to beverage menus next year?
I see fewer cocktails and I see them being batched/drafted more often. I'm foreseeing a return to "normal" business in the coming year, and with staffing shortages, bars will be simplifying as much as possible.
5. What do you think will be the biggest challenges in the on-premise next year?
Staffing, always staffing. Demand is only going to go up, and the labor force to handle it is mostly finite.
6. Guest experience is key in bars. Do you expect any changes to be made in the experiences bars provide?
I think what we're noticing is that guest experience starts at service quality more than pricing—a happy hour is only exciting if the bartenders aren't stretched too thinly and the bar isn't too busy.
J Rosser Lomax, Bartender at Commonwealth Tap, USBG Kentucky Chapter
1. What spirits do you predict will be most popular in 2023?
Agave Spirits, particularly Tequila & Mezcal, Bourbon, and an increase in premium rum as a base spirit
2. What flavors will be big in the New Year?
This is an awfully regional question—the big trends in flavors (espresso martinis) tend to either come back cyclically or from some non-cocktail trend that people make into an alcoholic beverage. A new flavor of vodka is not going to meaningfully affect the average drinker.
3. What cocktails will be trending next year?
I can put money on no one making Ranch Water a thing. Stop trying to make fetch a thing.
4. Do you foresee any major changes coming to beverage menus?
Fewer items and a pivot towards unbranded menus to cope with product shortages and distribution challenges is as likely as a supplier-driven trend towards branded menu placements.
5. What do you think will be the biggest challenges in the on-premise next year?:
The biggest challenge by far is staffing—the number of people who have left the industry to pursue jobs that aren’t beholden to the tipped minimum wage, have healthcare, and don’t expose the worker to frontline contact with customers is substantial, hollowing out a journeyman class of hospitality professionals. What’s left is lifers and kids under 26, who can still get by on their parents’ healthcare; training and educating that cohort takes time and is expensive, for payroll and labor hours.
The second biggest challenge is out of everyone’s hands, which is the rising cost of goods. From c-folds to citrus to whisky, everything is increasing in price, and the end consumer is very price sensitive in an inflationary environment. Raising prices to match increases in cost risks driving regulars into being less, well, regular, which disrupts a margin-sensitive business as well as creates unstable incomes for bar staff.
6. Guest experience is key in bars. Do you expect any changes to be made in the experiences bars provide?
Not in any kind of cohesive fashion—guest experiences are going to be shaped by the physical and psychic space of any bar—do you want to be waiting three deep for a beer when there’s a novel variant of the virus spreading around? Do you want to give up available seating to bring corn hole inside once the weather gets cold?
Nicholas Lappen, Bartender at Backbar, USBG Boston Chapter
1. What spirits do you predict will be most popular in 2023?
While the usual suspects will continue to sell, I expect to see Baijiu continue to grow in popularity in the west. I also think we will start to see grappa used more frequently.
2. Do you foresee any major changes coming to beverage menus?
I think you'll see trends continue towards lower-ABV and no-ABV options. Additionally, I think folks will continue to explore less well-known spirits like feni, baijiu, bacanora, raicilla, singani, etc.
3. Guest experience is key in bars. Do you expect any changes to be made in the experiences bars provide?
I think themed nights will rise in popularity, but where I really see a huge opportunity for growth is in educational experiences. So many folks spent the lock down learning about booze and cocktails, and now they're out and looking for more hands-on learning experiences.
Claire Mallett, Beverage Director at Catch One, USBG Los Angeles Chapter
1. What cocktails will be trending next year?
The Dirty Martini is back with a vengeance; once considered a guilty pleasure amongst the cocktail elite, now they are being enjoyed with gusto. We’re also seeing premiumization of the drink extend beyond just the base spirit as consumers demand top-quality in everything that goes into their cocktail. For example, Dirty Sue Premium Olive Juice, which was created by a bartender here in LA, is regularly found at top crafty cocktails spots as might be expected, but also at classic spots like Musso & Frank and Three Clubs.
Plan to Attend or Participate in Bar & Restaurant Expo, March 27-29, 2023
To learn about the latest trends, issues and hot topics, and to experience and taste the best products within the bar, restaurant and hospitality industry, plan to attend Bar & Restaurant Expo, March 27-29, 2023 in Las Vegas. Visit BarandRestaurantExpo.com.
To book your sponsorship or exhibit space at Bar & Restaurant Expo, contact:
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Tim Schultz (for companies H to Q) e: [email protected] p: (917) 258-8589
Fadi Alsayegh (for companies R to Z) e: [email protected] p: 917-258-5174
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