Have you missed our other 2023 trends installments? Catch up and read predictions from Technomic and get a sneak peek into Technomic's Vibe session, learn what flavors will be trending, look at the holidays and beyond, read af&co./Carbonate's Hospitality Trends Report, find out what's on the horizon for the on-premise, read what USBG members have to say about next year, and check out Pernod Ricard has to say about spirits.
As part of our 2023 trends series, Datassential, the leading food and beverage market research and intelligence platform, recently chatted with us about what the next year looks like for chain restaurants. Datassential Vice President of Customer Experience & Sommelier/WSET III Colleen McClellan as well as Datassential Trendologist and Associate Director Mike Kostyo both weighed in on what chains can expect in the areas of food, beverages, challenges, and more.
1. What spirits do you predict will be most popular in chain restaurants in 2023?
McClellan: Among smaller chains (less than 100 units), we will see mezcal, all types of tequila (añejo, reposado & blanco), soju, flower liqueurs, bitters, and rye whiskey grow.
For our larger chains (500+), rye whiskey, herbal, chocolate, cream liqueurs, tequila, moonshine, and schnapps (believe it or not) [will be trending].
2. What flavors will be big?
McClellan: We expect continued traction this coming year among chains with peanut butter, Tajín, pitaya/dragon fruit, Meyer lemon, guava, orange blossom, black cherry, wild berry, coconut cream, lavender, turmeric, lychee, and chamomile.
3. What cocktails will be trending next year?
McClellan: Among any chain we will see the following cocktails continue to trend:
- Ranch Water
- Highballs
- Aviation
- Bulldog
- Gin Fizz
- Espresso Martini
- Spicy/Jalapeño Margarita
- Sangrita
- Pineapple Margarita
- Spritz
- Paloma
- Negroni
- Old Fashioned
- Zombie
- Michelada
4. What do you think will be the biggest challenges in chain restaurants next year?
McClellan: It is going to be showing value through awesome experiences to help draw consumers in during uncertain economic times. Innovation that is worth leaving home for. Labor is another key issue, which I think will trigger some chains to invest in tap systems for cocktails and wine along with canned/bottled/boxed solutions that taste great but reduce training needs; i.e., we could even see adult beverage vending solutions emerge on the scene for some experiences like “eatertainment.”
6. Do you foresee any other trends or changes on the horizon for chain restaurants next year?
McClellan: The low/no-abv movement will continue. Happy hours will likely be resurrected. Brunch will thrive as a less expensive but fun experience to indulge and cheer folks up. Expect to see more limited-service establishments leveraging RTD adult beverages as a way to offer a cheaper total check average for a meal out or at home. Wine cocktails, frizzante wines, and group drinks (i.e., towers, buckets, flights) are back! Mini servings/mini bottles [are also back]. And don’t ignore drinks for a cause—feeling good about the choices we make is really important to our younger drinkers.
Kostyo: Chains really need to up their game when it comes to innovation on the menu in 2023. We’ve seen indications that innovation is lagging at major chains recently. Many aren’t adding as many unique items and ingredients to the menu. While it’s understandable considering that many operators are just trying to deal with issues like high prices and the labor shortage, consumers are eager for fresh, new, exciting options they can only get from foodservice. We need to give customers a reason to get out of their houses and order from foodservice again, which means introducing unique options they can’t make at home. In an ideal world, 2023 will focus on innovation. Alcoholic beverages can be a big part of that. It’s an area of the menu that often showcases those fun, creative flavors and platforms that you can only get in foodservice. There’s a reason that so many of the fastest-growing trends on menus are alcoholic beverages. Indeed, the fastest-growing item overall on menus is the Ranch Water cocktail. Alcoholic beverage trends drive trends overall.
7. In 2023, are you expecting there to be any particular food trends in chain restaurants?
Kostyo: Overall, chain restaurants have fared better than independents during the pandemic, so the key concern for them will be building on that momentum. While smaller restaurants are cutting hours drastically, the larger chains have kept their same hours, for the most part. They’ve been able to weather the storms of inflation, the labor crunch, supply chain issues, and lingering pandemic concerns a bit better than independents, though they’re still pain points for chains, of course. Major chains will have to build on their strengths while also trying to get past some of these issues in 2023.
8. Do you think there will be any change in traffic/visits to chain restaurants given inflation and other challenges?
Kostyo: At this point, you hate to forecast because every time we try to look ahead, a new challenge crops up. There are signs that inflation is slowing and 2023 may move in a positive direction, so we’re cautiously optimistic, but we’ll still be dealing with it for a while. In the short term, a lot of the industry’s increased revenue is going to come from inflation, unfortunately. One area that we see really helping major chains weather the storm is technology, particularly back-of-house tech. The foodservice industry isn’t going to have the same labor base that it had pre-pandemic, so tech will become a necessity.
9. Takeout was huge during the pandemic. Do you foresee off-premise/takeout traffic growing, staying the same, or decreasing next year?
Kostyo: Takeout and delivery was always going to slow down after the height of the pandemic, which was an unprecedented time, but usage will be permanently higher when compared to pre-pandemic times. It’s a sticky service that young people, in particular, love. Consumers also tell us again and again that they love having alcohol as an option for off-premises orders. For delivery, the number one pain point is the price—from higher menu prices to delivery fees and tips, which are even more of a concern when consumers are so price-conscious. You have to prove the value. For takeout and drive-thrus, it all comes down to the experience. Consumers don’t want to wait a long time, and they want the food to travel well. How are you going to keep that frozen margarita frozen?
Plan to Attend or Participate in Bar & Restaurant Expo, March 27-29, 2023
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